08 March 2024

Oscars 2024 Predictions: What Will Win and What Should Win

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Part of growing up is falling out of love with the Oscars.

There was a time when the Oscars were a highlight of my year, a cherished ritual my parents indulged in by pulling me out of school just so we could all watch it live. The musical numbers, the speeches, the star power – it was breathtaking.

Now, instead of eagerly popping popcorn and tuning in for the obligatory 4-hour telecast, I reluctantly skim through recaps, cringing at the jokes and grumbling to myself as my favourites are snubbed in favour of blander, more obvious choices, who are then gifted the prestigious title of BEST MOTION PICTURE OF THE YEAR.

So, no, I no longer enjoy watching the Oscars. However, amidst the ashes of my former enjoyment lies a new pleasure – subjective speculation.

This is a particularly fun year to speculate, because 2023 was the Year of ‘Barbenheimer’ - the box-office, pop culture dominating pair of blockbusters that earned critical, commercial, and now, Oscar success.

All eyes are on this year’s awards, and the film industry is back at the forefront of the cultural conversation. Movies were better than ever in 2023, which makes trying to predict this year’s winners a tricky task. Nevertheless, I’ll give it a good go!

Rather than subject yourself to four hours of lengthy speeches, underwhelming winners and the constant tension of not knowing whether Barbie wins a Makeup and Hairstyle Oscar, instead please allow me to predict (with 100% accuracy I swear) the winners of a few of the biggest categories. Then on March 10th, you can tell your friends: “I called it!”.

Who will win? And who actually deserves it?

Let’s start with:

Best Picture

What Will Win: Oppenheimer

In a rare display of good taste from the Academy, all six Best Picture nominees are spectacular films which all deserve the win, but I still would place my life savings on Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer sweeping every category this year.

It’s a deeply relevant period piece from one of Hollywood’s most revered directors that boasts a star-studded cast, immersive editing and a kickass soundtrack. In simpler terms: the sort of stuff Academy members eat up.

It’s a good year for blockbusters that don’t talk down to audiences though, and for that Oppenheimer deserves respect. But although Oppenheimer stands as a triumph of cinema, in my opinion, it still falls far short of being the year’s most vital, fresh, and mesmerizing film.

What should Win: Poor Things

While Oppenheimer perfectly caters to the tastes of the stereotypical Academy member, in my opinion Poor Things actually achieves a similar feat, albeit only in a bizarre alternate universe where artistic vision is prized above all else.

The A-list cast here all deliver career-defining performances, particularly Emma Stone as the doe-eyed frankenbride and Mark Ruffalo as the uproarious 'god's gift to women,' who frequently steals the spotlight with his one-liners.

What Yorgos Lanthimos does with such tricky material is simply spectacular - this art with the gloves off, an uncompromised masterpiece with oodles to say and endlessly delightful ways in which to say it.

Laugh out hilarious, heartbreakingly sad, and eye poppingly gorgeous, Poor Things is pure cinema and was the best film released last year. Everything Oppenheimer does, Poor Things does better, it just does it in a much weirder, cerebral way.

Unfortunately, it has bare breasts in it so that’s a big no no from the Academy.

Best Actor

What Will Win: Cillian Murphy

What Should Win: Cillian Murphy

This one’s pretty easy actually! It’s two horse race this year, with Paul Giamatti’s Holdovers performance eyed as the other potential frontrunner.

However, for me there is no competition.

Cillian Murphy’s steely eyed portrayal of scientist J Robert Oppenheimer is the swirling, magnetic centre of the nearly three-hour film. As his doubts begin to intensify and his anguish cements itself, Murphy’s transformation from impassioned scientist to broken harbinger of the apocalypse is precisely the kind of performance the Academy adores.

Regardless of my personal feelings toward Oppenheimer, Murphy unquestionably deserves this one.

Best Actress

Who Will Win: Lily Gladstone

The Academy loves making history, and the opportunity to award an Indigenous American with an Academy Award for the first time seems too significant to let pass. Gladstone deserves it too, she more than holds her own against Dicaprio and De Niro, and her performance gives the film its much needed beating heart.

Who Should Win: Emma Stone

Gladstone completely deserves it, but I still think Emma Stone’s utterly unique performance as Bella was the year’s single best performance.

From her hilariously stilted stutter walk as she learns to navigate the world (earning her the moniker of 'world's prettiest retard') to her brilliantly overcomplicated vocabulary that has her speaking like Liberace with the brain of a 6-year-old Leslie Knope, Stone had me transfixed every step of the way.

Capable of delivering laugh-out-loud one-liners one moment and heart-wrenching insights into the human condition the next, Stone displays versatility, style, and humanity in spades. She is mesmerizing and proves herself to be one of our greatest living actresses.

Best Director

Who Will Win: Christopher Nolan

Who Should Win: Christopher Nolan

Unbelievably, Nolan has never taken home a Best Director win, but it's hard to imagine a better match between man and material, then what he’s pulled off here with Oppenheimer.

Oppenheimer is astoundingly put together, balancing dozens of story threads, characters and timelines, while never forgetting about the flawed, passionate man at its centre. It’s a marvel of filmmaking, and I’m pretty sure everyone unanimously agrees to just let Nolan have this one.

Who Should’ve been Nominated: Greta Gerwig

Best Original Screenplay

What Will Win: Anatomy of a Fall

Anatomy of a Fall has the unenviable task of making 3 hours of pure dialogue interesting, yet it completely nails keeping the audience intrigued and engaged.

This is the rare murder mystery where delving deeper into the story only serves to further obscure the truth. There are no clear victims or perpetrators, only three family members with three conflicting versions of the truth, and just because their stories don’t line up doesn't make them liars.

In particular, our ‘protagonist’ is an extremely compelling character, written with such nuance that you can physically feel your sympathy for her ebb and flow as more facets of her personality are revealed. This is a masterfully written film.

What Should Win: Past Lives

That being said, I have a soft spot for films centered around intimate conversations between characters (shout out to the Before Sunrise trilogy), and while Anatomy of a Fall may be objectively superior in its writing, Past Lives resonated with me on a deeper level.

Longing is a complex emotion for a film to evoke, and this movie captures it flawlessly. Whether it's longing for the past, for an alternate life, or for a partner with whom things never quite aligned, the writing of Past Lives left me emotionally shaken by its realism and impact.

While the acting, editing, and directing all deserve praise, it's the subtle power of the screenplay that makes this film unforgettable.